According to the Central Department of Statistics and information (CDSI), GDP is estimated to reach SR 2,727.4 (US $727.3) billions in current prices in 2012, reflecting a growth of 8.6 percent compared to 2011.
The private sector is estimated to grow by 11.5 percent in current prices in 2012.
As a result of the aggregate economic census implemented by CDSI to update the economic activities of the private sector, real GDP growth for 2011 has been revised upward to 8.5 percent instead of 7.0 percent. In real terms, GDP for 2012 is estimated to grow by 6.8 percent, with the oil sector growing by 5.5 percent and non-oil sector by 7.2 percent. In real terms, the government sector is estimated to grow by 6.2 percent and the private sector by 7.5 percent. In real terms, the private sector's contribution to GDP is expected to reach 58 percent. All components of GDP recorded positive and healthy growth in 2012. More specifically, non-oil industrial sector is estimated to grow by 8.3 percent; construction by 10.3 percent; electricity, gas, and water sector by 7.3 percent; transport, storage and communication sector by 10.7 percent; wholesale, retail, restaurants, and hotels by 8.3 percent; and finance, insurance and real estate by 4.4 percent.
General price level
Inflation, as measured by the cost of living index according to the revised goods and services basket based on the new 2007 base year is estimated to have increased by 2.9 percent in 2012, while the non-oil GDP deflator showed an increase of 3.8 percent.
Foreign trade and balance of payments
According to the Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency (SAMA) preliminary data, total exports of goods are estimated to be SR 1485 (US $396) billions in 2012, representing an increase of 9.0 percent over 2011. Non-oil exports of goods are estimated at SR 183 (US $48.8) billions, reflecting an increase of about 4.0 percent and representing 12 percent of total goods exported.
Total imports of goods are estimated at SR 480 (US $128) billions in 2012, growing at 7.0 percent compared to 2011.
According to preliminary data from SAMA, the trade balance is estimated to record a surplus of SR 1005 (US $268) billions in 2012, an increase of 10.0 percent compared to last year.
The current account is estimated to record a surplus of SR 669.2 (US 178.5) billions in 2012 compared to SR 594.5 (US $158.5) billions in 2011, an increase of 13 percent.
Money and banking
The broad money supply during the first ten months of fiscal year 2012 grew by 10 percent compared to 10.2 percent for the same period of the previous year. With regard to the banking sector, bank deposits recorded a growth rate of 9.5 percent during the first ten months of 2012, total banks claims on the public and private sector increased by 11.5 percent and their capital and reserves increased by 10.3 percent reaching SR 210 (US $56) billions.
Other developments
A number of developments and initiatives actions taken by the governments mainly in 2012 have contributed to a rise in private sector confidence and its robust growth performance including:
– The International Monetary Fund (IMF) commended the economic policies of the Kingdom in investing oil revenues toward achieving local development objectives. The government announced a number of initiatives to address pressing social issues such as employment of nationals, housing, and SME financing. The Executive Directors of the IMF also commended the Kingdom's efforts to stabilize the international oil market, enhancing financial control, and risk management.
– Standard & Poor's confirmed Saudi Arabia's sovereign rating at (AA-).
– A report by the G20 showed that the Kingdom ranked first among the members of the group in the implementation of the obligations of the G20 in terms of structural reforms, fiscal discipline, financial institutions reform, and the regulation of financial markets.
– New entities were established and laws passed pertaining to fiscal, institutional, and organizational reform were issued during FY 2012, including: the Television and Broadcasting commission, the General Authority for Audiovisual information, the Evaluation of General Education Commission, the Public Transport Authority, Anti-money laundering law, Arbitration law, Real Estate Finance Law (mortgage law), Financial Lease Law, Law on Supervision of Finance Companies.
Highlights
• Public debt expected to fall 3.6% of GDP to SR98.84b ($26.35bn) by end of 2012 from SR135.5b ($36bn) in the end of 2011
• GDP expected to grow 6.8% with oil sector 5.5% and non-oil sector 7.2%
• Private sector’s contributions in GDP would reach 58% of GDP
• Cost of living index grew by 2.9% in 2012 from 2011
• Volume of exports in 2012 to grow 9% to SR1485 billion ($396bn) over 2011
• Non-oil exports to reach SR183 billion (48.8bn) in 2012 (4% increase from 2011)
• Volume of imports SR480 billion (128bn0 in 2012 (7% increase from 2011)
• New projects, programs and additional allocations for current projects worth SR285 billion (76bn).
ifpinfo
2 January
