The World Trade Organization revised downward its projection for world trade growth in 2013 to 3.3% in real terms from its September forecast of 4.5%, which is below the annual average of 5.3% for the past 20 years. It attributed the change to the adverse impact of the European economic slowdown on global import demand, which will be partly offset by improved economic prospects for the United States.
It expected world trade growth to accelerate to 5% in real terms in 2014 assuming a strong recovery in global output. On the export side, the WTO anticipated a 1.4% increase in developed economies' exports, down from an earlier forecast of 3.3%; and a 5.3% rise in exports from developing countries and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) relative to a previous projection of 5.7%.
On the import side, it forecast imports to developed economies to grow by 1.4% in 2013, down from an earlier forecast of 3.4%, and imports to developing countries and the CIS to rise by 5.9% relative to an earlier forecast of 6.1%. In parallel, the WTO expected exports from developed economies to increase by 2.6% in 2014 and imports to these countries to grow by 3.2%; while it forecast exports from developing economies including CIS countries to increase by 7.5% in 2014 and imports to these economies to rise by 7.4%.
World Trade Organization