OPEC said global oil demand will pick up pace next year and rise by about 1 million barrels a day, but it warned of political risk to supply going forward. The views underscore the shifting focus to geopolitical risk after a political crisis in Egypt, and away from previous attention to ample supply gushing out of U.S. shale oil formations. Crude futures continued to climb after the American Petroleum Institute said that U.S. crude oil stocks fell more than expected.
In its first estimate for 2014, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said world oil demand will surge by 1.04 million barrels a day next year, an increase of around 300,000 barrels compared with the growth predicted for the current year.
In figures published in its monthly oil-market report, the group also slightly cut oil demand growth for this year by 10,000 barrels a day, now seen at about 770,000 barrels a day.
OPEC, whose members produce more than one in three barrels consumed in the world each day, says it won't benefit from rising oil demand. It sees demand for its crude next year declining by about 300,000 barrels a day to average 29.6 million barrels a day.
But the organization warned its supply forecasts from rival producers were subject to a "high level of risk"–largely due to political unrest. It emphasized turmoil in African countries such as South Sudan and in Middle-Eastern nations like Syria and Yemen.
OPEC's own production has suffered from disruptions. Last month, it fell by about 310,000 barrels a day, as violent protests slashed about 200,000 barrels a day of Libyan production and oil theft cut 70,000 barrels a day of Nigerian output.
"Political instability is continuing to be the prime source of uncertainty on the [African] continent during 2013 and 2014," the group said.
Dow Jones Newswires